Kazakhstan’s Elections: yet another success for the party of power

The Central Electoral Commission of Kazakhstan has released the preliminary results of the legislative elections, held yesterday, January 15th. According to this communication, Nur Otan has got the 80.74% of votes, while two other parties have reached the 7% threshold for receiving seats: they are Ak Zhol, recently revamped as liberal pro-business formation, and the People's Communist Party of Kazakhstan (with 7.46% and 7.2% respectively). The other parties, including the Socialist Party OZDP, the Democratic Party “Adilet”, the Village Party “Auyl” and the “Party of Patriots”, received between the 0.66% and the 1.59% of votes, and are therefore not eligible for parliamentary seats [1]. According to the preliminary results on turnout, 75.1% of the people inscribed in electoral lists have voted. In the cities of Almaty and Astana the percentage was much lower than in the rest of the country (41.4% and 53.3% respectively) [2].

The results are not quite surprising, especially as the result of the party of power is concerned. The vote confirms the dominant position of Nur Otan (The Fatherland’s Light), which enjoys huge popular support and is the only one which can boast branches even in the most remote corners of the country.

The capillary presence on the territory is only one of the benefits of the party’s dominant position and privileged relation with state institutions. This ability of politicians or parties to use their official positions or connections to government institutions to achieve party objectives is sometimes referred to as “administrative resources” (adminresurs in Russian) by political scientists [3].  Resources include funding, support networks on regional level, personnel and structures of administration, relations with business people, as well as privileged access to state media [4].

The image of the party is also strongly associated with the figure of the country’s leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Despite some oscillation, President Nazarbayev enjoys huge personal popularity in the country. Mostly, the reason for such reputation is the association (helped by effective PR campaigns) of the president’s rule with the relative political stability and the steady economic growth that the country has enjoyed since independence. The actually impressive growth and political balance look even more remarkable when compared with the much more difficult situations in the other Central Asian countries. Nur Otan, rather than building an image of its own, effectively collects on Nazarbayev’s popularity, by declaring itself the “President’s Party” in and by using the image and the name of the leader in every possible occasion.

While its general popularity is undoubted, such a striking result in favour of the party of power was possible only in a context of lack of transparency and presence of violations of the electoral rules, observers say. According to the OSCE, despite the authorities' ambition to strengthen democratic processes, the January 15th vote "did not meet fundamental principles of democratic elections" [5].

[1] See: http://election.kz/portal/page?_pageid=73,1697139&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[2] http://tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/205990/

[3] This definition of “administrative resources” is by Andrei Meleshevich. See his book “Party Systems in post-Soviet countries: a Comparative Study of Political Institutionalization in the Baltic State, Russia and Ukraine”. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007.

[4] For example, while there are not data available for these elections yet, in the 2007 electoral campaign the media monitoring performed by the OSCE indicated a significant bias in favour of the party of power, both in time allocated and in tone of coverage, almost always neutral or positive. See: http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/kazakhstan/28438

[5] http://www.rferl.org/content/kazakhstan_three_parties_win_entry_to_parliament/24452861.html

Kazakhstan’s Early Parliamentary Elections

The elections for the Mazhilis, the lower chamber of Kazakhstan’s parliament, will take place tomorrow, January 15th 2012.

It is a case of early elections, as the Mazhilis natural term would have ended only in the summer [1]. According to local experts, the country leadership is trying by this mean to deal with an increasing popular dissatisfaction. The lack of leadership change and the worsening of the effects of the economic crisis are in fact likely to mine the ample support basis that the President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his party Nur Otan have enjoyed so far [2]. Indeed, a call for popular consultation would offer a possibility to express dissent while limiting the risk of violent uprising.

The possibility of a “colored revolution” or at least of post-electoral mobilization is in fact feared by authorities. Worrying signals come especially from the Western regions of the country. The December events in the city of Zhanaosen, in the oil-rich but economically deprived Mangistau province, have provided a catalyst for people’s discontent. In Zhanaosen a long-lasting strike organized by workers in the energy sector escalated in deadly riots in December.

At some point authorities had even decided not to have elections in the city. The goal was probably to limit the risks of post-electoral disorders and mass protests, as seen in neighboring Russia and Kyrgyzstan. While this ban has been lifted, security measures remain extremely high, and experts expect a decrease in the electoral turnover in the region, as a result of the people’s disappointment in state institutions. 

In the intentions of the country leadership, the elections should represent a crucial step towards the transformation of the country from a presidential to a parliamentary republic with a dual party system. This intent has been confirmed in several occasions both by the President Nazarbayev and his advisor Mr. Ermukhamet Ertysbayev.

In 2009 the Electoral Law was amended in order to allow at least a second party to enter the parliament, while still not suspending the existing 7% entry threshold [3]. This measure addresses also the criticism for having only one party – the pro-presidential Nur Otan – occupying all of the seats in the Mazhilis, as it was the case since 2007.

Apart from the party of power Nur Otan, two parties have some chances to get seats in the Mazhilis. The first, Ak Zhol (Bright Path), has been recently re-branded as a liberal-oriented political formation. Its new leader, Azat Peruashev, is also the president of the National Economic Chamber “Atameken”, an organization which gathers entrepreneurs and business-people. According to local political analysts, the goal of this operation was that of creating the conditions for the development of a two-party system, with Nur Otan occupying the centre-left of the political spectrum and Ak Zhol occupying the centre-right. Ak Zhol is expected to be the second parliamentary party, just after Nur Otan, while the Socialist Party OZDP is expected to rank third. OZDP will present candidates from its own ranks as well as from the party Azat (Freedom). The two parties have actually merged in 2009 but so far the resulting party has not been registered.

The other parties participating in the elections are: the “People’s Communist Party of Kazakhstan”, the Village Social Democratic Party “Auyl”, the Democratic Party “Adilet”, and the “Party of Patriots”.

The Green Party “Rukhaniyat”, initially included in the electoral lists, has been excluded from participation. Its registration, granted on December 14th, has been withdrawn by the Central Electoral Commission on December 28th, on the basis of irregularities in the presentation of candidates [4]. Also the second Communist party of Kazakhstan (The Communist Party of Kazakhstan) will not participate in the elections, as it has been temporarily suspended last October [5]. Finally, the radical opposition movement Alga will not been able to contest the elections, because it is not officially registered as political party.

A large number of local and international electoral observers organizations is already present in the country and will monitor the electoral process. In previous elections in Kazakhstan numerous cases of violations of electoral laws have been reported by the OSCE.

As far as results are concerned, little change is anticipated: Nur Otan is still expected to be the first party in the Mazhilis and to maintain a large majority, even with the presence of a second party.

Notes

[1] The Presidential Ukaz calling for early elections was published on November 16 in the official gazette "Kazakhstanskaya pravda".  http://www.rferl.org/content/kazakh_president_dissolves_parliament_calls_early_elections/24392772.html

[2] I base my statement on interviews I conducted in Kazakhstan in October/November 2011. I also propose to watch the video- discussion http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xmi1kAOGp2A&feature=youtu.be

[3] If only one party reaches the 7% threshold, the seats will be distributed between this party and the first runner-up. Art. 97.1.(2) of the Constitutional Law "On Elections". See: http://election.kz/portal/page?_pageid=73,48553&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[4] OSCE Preliminary Report http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/Kazakhstan/86898 See also: http://news.nur.kz/204914.html and http://en.trend.az/regions/casia/kazakhstan/1974971.html

[5] http://www.krasnoe.tv/node/11508