The elections for the
Mazhilis, the lower chamber of Kazakhstan’s
parliament, will take place tomorrow, January 15th 2012.
It is a case of early
elections, as the Mazhilis natural term would have ended only in the summer
[1]. According to local experts, the country leadership is trying by this mean
to deal with an increasing popular dissatisfaction. The lack of leadership
change and the worsening of the effects of the economic crisis are in fact
likely to mine the ample support basis that the President Nursultan Nazarbayev
and his party Nur Otan have enjoyed so far [2]. Indeed, a call for popular
consultation would offer a possibility to express dissent while limiting the
risk of violent uprising.
The possibility of a
“colored revolution” or at least of post-electoral mobilization is in fact
feared by authorities. Worrying signals come especially from the Western
regions of the country. The December events in the city of Zhanaosen, in the oil-rich but economically deprived Mangistau province, have provided a
catalyst for people’s discontent. In Zhanaosen a long-lasting strike organized by
workers in the energy sector escalated in deadly riots in December.
At some point
authorities had even decided not to have elections in the city. The goal was
probably to limit the risks of post-electoral disorders and mass protests, as
seen in neighboring Russia
and Kyrgyzstan.
While this ban has been lifted, security measures remain extremely high, and
experts expect a decrease in the electoral turnover in the region, as a result
of the people’s disappointment in state institutions.
In the intentions of
the country leadership, the elections should represent a crucial step towards
the transformation of the country from a presidential to a parliamentary
republic with a dual party system. This intent has been confirmed in several occasions
both by the President Nazarbayev and his advisor Mr.
Ermukhamet Ertysbayev.
In 2009 the Electoral
Law was amended in order to allow at least a second party to enter the
parliament, while still not suspending the existing 7% entry threshold [3].
This measure addresses also the criticism for having only one party – the
pro-presidential Nur Otan – occupying all of the seats in the Mazhilis, as it
was the case since 2007.
Apart from the party of power Nur Otan, two parties have some chances to get seats in the Mazhilis. The first, Ak Zhol (Bright Path),
has been recently re-branded as a liberal-oriented political formation. Its new
leader, Azat Peruashev, is also the president of the National Economic Chamber
“Atameken”, an organization which gathers entrepreneurs and business-people.
According to local political analysts, the goal of this operation was that of creating the
conditions for the development of a two-party system, with Nur Otan occupying
the centre-left of the political spectrum and Ak Zhol occupying the
centre-right. Ak Zhol is expected to be the second parliamentary party, just
after Nur Otan, while the Socialist Party OZDP is expected to rank third. OZDP
will present candidates from its own ranks as well as from the party Azat
(Freedom). The two parties have actually merged in 2009 but so far the
resulting party has not been registered.
The other parties
participating in the elections are: the “People’s Communist Party of
Kazakhstan”, the Village Social Democratic Party “Auyl”, the Democratic Party
“Adilet”, and the “Party of Patriots”.
The Green Party
“Rukhaniyat”, initially included in the electoral lists, has been excluded from
participation. Its registration, granted on December 14th, has been
withdrawn by the Central Electoral Commission on December 28th, on
the basis of irregularities in the presentation of candidates [4]. Also the
second Communist party of Kazakhstan
(The Communist Party of Kazakhstan) will not participate in the elections, as
it has been temporarily suspended last October [5]. Finally, the radical
opposition movement Alga will not been able to contest the elections, because
it is not officially registered as political party.
A large number of
local and international electoral observers organizations is already present in
the country and will monitor the electoral process. In previous elections in Kazakhstan numerous
cases of violations of electoral laws have been reported by the OSCE.
As far as results are
concerned, little change is anticipated: Nur Otan is still expected to be the
first party in the Mazhilis and to maintain a large majority, even with the
presence of a second party.
Notes
[1]
The Presidential Ukaz calling for early elections was published on November 16
in the official gazette "Kazakhstanskaya pravda". http://www.rferl.org/content/kazakh_president_dissolves_parliament_calls_early_elections/24392772.html
[2] I base my
statement on interviews I conducted in Kazakhstan in October/November
2011. I also propose to watch the video- discussion http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xmi1kAOGp2A&feature=youtu.be
[3]
If only one party reaches the 7% threshold, the seats will be distributed
between this party and the first runner-up. Art. 97.1.(2) of the Constitutional Law "On Elections". See: http://election.kz/portal/page?_pageid=73,48553&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
[4] OSCE
Preliminary Report http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/Kazakhstan/86898
See also: http://news.nur.kz/204914.html
and http://en.trend.az/regions/casia/kazakhstan/1974971.html
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